Imf Warns Of 'somewhat' Greater Global Financial Risk

Finance Minister Asad Minister briefed Prime Minister Imran Khan on the potential bailout package

"Owing to these changes, our global growth projections for both this year and next are downgraded to 3.7 per cent, 0.2 percentage point below our last assessments and the same rate achieved in 2017", the report said.

The IMF expects the US economy to grow 2.9 percent this year, the fastest pace since 2005 and unchanged from the July forecast.

The IMF downgraded the economic growth forecasts for the whole region of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, compared to the April edition of the World Economic Outlook, reflecting "to an important extent the worsening of growth prospects for Iran, following the reimposition of U.S. sanctions", the IMF said in the October outlook.

IMF's forecasts for Hong Kong's economic outlook are mixed: it raises its forecast for 2018 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.8%, while cutting its forecast for 2019 by 0.3 percentage points to 2.9%.

According to a media report, State Bank of Pakistan had viewed that the exchange rate of Rs137 to a dollar by the end of current fiscal year in June 2019 would be sufficient to address the challenges.

On the global ratings, International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecasts due to the trade tensions between the US and trading partners.

International Monetary Fund capital markets director Tobias Adrian said potential shocks to the system could come in many forms, such as higher-than expected inflation that triggers a sharp jump in interest rates or a "disorderly" exit by Britain from the European Union.

China's growth is still expected to be more than 6% next year, but the IMF's chief economist Maurice Obstfeld warned Beijing to concentrate on quality and sustainability of growth, not quantity of growth.

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The rupee tumbled to about 134 per dollar by 0530 GMT, after closing at 124.26 on Monday, in what market participants called a de facto devaluation.

Under the 2015 Act, China only meets one of the three criteria for currency manipulation, namely that a country runs a significant bilateral trade surplus with the United States of at least US$20 billion.

"It's inevitable that central banks make the decisions that they make".

More broadly, given continued monetary policy normalisation in advanced economies and escalating trade tensions, policy makers in emerging-market economies should be prepared to face portfolio flow reversals, said the IMF.

"We continue to closely monitor developments in the yuan; we remain concerned about the recent depreciation of the yuan", said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The effects on the U.S. and China would be particularly severe, with 2019 GDP losses of more than 0.9% in the U.S. and 1.6% in China in 2019.

"Where we are now is we've gotten some bad news".

Adjustments would occur as domestic production displaces higher-priced imports, the model shows, but in the long run, the US GDP would still be 1% below a baseline without these tariffs, while China's GDP output would be 0.5% below the baseline.

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