Tropical Low Headed to South Florida

A tropical disturbance in the west Caribbean may become a tropical depression or tropical storm this week. Should pose no Gulf Coast threat

If this system is able to eventually organize and grow, it would become Tropical Storm Philippe, the 16th named storm of the season.

That's expected to happen Friday night or Saturday, so tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of Cuba and the Bahamas. The system will have little chance to develop because of interaction with an arriving cold front.

The disturbance will start to move to the northeast, producing heavy rainfall in the Cayman Islands and Cuba Friday and Saturday.

The moisture from this potential storm will first get drawn north and then northeastward by a southward dip in the jet stream that will sweep through the central and eastern states late this week into the weekend.

Localized rainfall of 5-10 inches (128-250 mm) will raise the risk of flash flooding and mudslides on land areas in the northwestern Caribbean into Saturday.

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South Florida including the Florida Keys: 3 to 5 inches, isolated maximum of 8 inches possible.

Rain and showers associated with a northern cold front are just the beginning of wet weather rolling over the Cayman Islands this weekend. This is a hotbed of tropical origins that we'll be watching through the end of October and into November.

The worst hurricane season in years might have one more surprise in store.

The National Hurricane Center has been tracking the disturbance, a trough of low pressure, since it developed in the Caribbean. "Also, there will be enough instability to support scattered thunderstorms, mainly Saturday afternoon and evening, as another frontal boundary approaches South Florida from the north".

Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 will move across western Cuba late Saturday and move through the northwestern Bahamas Saturday night and early Sunday.

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