Oil dips from four-week highs

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil

Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service told CNCB this week that he anticipates an increase in American oil exports by up to 15 to 20 million barrels of crude a week in months to come.

Futures fell 0.6 percent in NY, halting three sessions of gains.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and some non-OPEC producers including Russian Federation have pledged to reduce production by around 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) until the end of March 2018 to drain a global supply glut.

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.5 percent to $53.98 after closing Thursday at $52.64.

"This is likely what's continuing to weigh on the crude market at present", Michael Loewen, a commodities strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto. said in reference to the increase in supplies from US oil fields. OPEC is said to be working on an exit strategy in an effort to reassure investors that the group will manage a controlled release of supplies to avoid a new glut when the curbs eventually expire.

Brent fell 38 cents to $58.92 a barrel by 1215 GMT, after Thursday's rise to $59.55, its highest since July 2015 and more than 30 percent above its 2017 lows touched in June. The global benchmark traded at a premium of $6.69 to West Texas Intermediate.

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USA crude exports have averaged 1.7 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, the highest ever. "Initially, it was thought to be related to the hurricane, but to me it's becoming a little more structural".

The kingdom has been a larger supplier to the US for most of the past quarter century, data from the Energy Information Administration show.

Gasoline stockpiles dropped by 5.5 million barrels for the week, while distillate stockpiles fell 5.2 million barrels, according to the EIA.

"The exports are ripping higher", Loewen said. "The oil fields near Kirkuk-the Bai Hassan and Avana fields-are still reportedly not exporting crude, but that could soon change", reports OilPrice.com. The week before, Iraq exported just 423,000 bpd to the U.S.

Given oil's implied volatility of 24.1%, United States crude oil futures could close between $50.88 and $54.40 per barrel in the next seven days with a probability of about 68%.

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